Lexington Council At-Large, A Three Way Tie for Second

A recent poll shows Jim Gray with a commanding lead Lexington Fayette County Council At-Large race. After Gray there is a virtual three way tie for second place between Steve Kay, George Brown and Chuck Ellinger.

The At-Large race has six candidates; voters get to pick 3 candidates to serve on the council. Historically the voters usually vote for about 2.5 candidates per voter. Some vote for three, some vote for two and some vote for one, or what is known as bullet voting.

The poll, with a 5% margin of error, breaks down this way:

Gray 41%
Ellinger 29%
Kay 27%
Brown 24%
Gorton 16%
Shafer 15%

The simple interpretation is that Gray is running away. Kay, Brown and Ellinger are in a dead heat. Gorton and Shafer are dead in the water.

First, before the email flames start, I am a Kay partisan. I think Steve Kay will make an excellent member of the council, and I have worked to get him elected.

So here is the interesting part to me.

How did these three guys got in such a close race. Ellinger, because of the years his father severed on the Council runs on name recognition alone. Chuck Ellinger, even if he died tomorrow, would still get 30 percent of the vote.

George Brown, in spite of a dismal record as the First District Council Representative has parlayed support of the German owned Kentucky American Water Company and an appeal to see if a black man can be elected to an At-Large seat into a viable campaign.

Steve Kay has spent over a year talking to people in small groups all over Lexington and doing a good job raising money, (over 900 separate contributions) to get his ideas of stewardship out to the voters.

And how did Linda Gorton and Sandy Shafer end up finishing out of contention. The main problems with Gorton and Shafer are that neither of them raised sufficient money or ran a truly county-wide race.

Where Kay worked hard to build a wide ranging number of supporters and contributors, Ellinger relied on a family name and Brown banked on connections with the water company, neither Gorton nor Shafer achieved the necessary organization nor raise sufficient money to be viable.

Money, and the exposure it buys, is necessary in this kind of race.