Here’s my best guess, at this point in time, regarding the races for the 2007 Constitutional Offices.
On the Democratic side I think there are three viable potential candidates Attorney General Greg Stumbo, Mayor of Louisville Jerry Abramson, and former Governor Brereton Jones.
For you fans of Texas Hold ’em all the cards have been dealt and three players are left. The first one all in will be the winner the other two will fold. At the present time they are jockeying for position.
My guess is that Jones will be the first one in with major support from the democratic power brokers. Abramson will fold because when it comes to running statewide that what he does every time. Stumbo will get as much as he can from Jones not to run and will bide his time and eventually take on Hal Rogers or his successor.
On the Republican side Anne Northup is the wild card. With the backing of Mitch McConnell she could take the nomination from Ernie Fletcher in a three way race. The question now is after losing to John Yarmuth and personal family tragedies can she jump in to a primary battle with Fletcher. If Anne is in she gets the nomination. If Anne is not in Ernie gets the nomination.
Greg Stumbo runs for re-election and probably faces stiff Republican competition. After the Fletcher administration scandal, the Republicans have figured out what a pain in the butt an Attorney General from the other party can be. They will pump a ton of money into this race and the race for the Auditor’s Office.
A word of caution to the Republicans, just because the Attorney General is of the same party life is not always good. If you doubt me, ask former Democratic Governor Paul Patton what he thought when former Attorney General Ben Chandler had three Patton loyalists indicted.
For a number of reasons Crit Luallen will not run again. The two possible Democratic candidates are former Secretary of State John Y. Brown III. and former Auditor Ed Hatchett. Both would do a good job and Hatchett, since he as been Auditor for eight years before, would probably hit the ground running a little faster than Brown.
The problem her is that, like I mentioned before, the Republicans will toss a ton of money at this race. Ed Hatchett, look at his numbers at Election Finance, can’t raise money worth a damn. So the best shot at winning this office would probably be Brown, he has name recognition and can raise money.
Secretary of State
Unless the Democrats can find a well funded attractive candidate, who has enough sense to beat up on Republican Trey Grayson for the long lines at the polls and the general frustration many voters felt during the last general election then Grayson should repeat for this office.
I don’t have a clue here. As far as I can tell there are no serious candidates for this office. Jonathan Miller is term limited out and with Stumbo going back as Attorney General and Ben Chandler staying in Congress, Jonathan gets to go home and practice law.
Commissioner of Agriculture
There have been rumors that Richie Farmer may change his jersey and play for the Blue team, but I doubt it. Farmer has be a no show as Commissioner of Agriculture. Any competent candidate with some bucks and a message should be able to knock him off. Maybe we could get Gatewood Galbraith to run for Commissioner of Agriculture again.
I would pay money to see a Richie Farmer – Gatewood Galbraith debate.