Gambling and Dissonance

You have to give Ernie Fletcher credit for being a good campaigner. His latest move to frame the debate is to take a strongly anti-gambling stance.

From the Herald-Leader:

“The governor, already knee-deep in his re-election effort, began road testing his new anti-casino arguments in LaRue County on Thursday, then the Winchester Country Club on Friday.

In doing so, he has tried to capture the first major issue of the fall governor's race against Democratic challenger Steve Beshear, who harnessed a pro-casino message during his spring primary victory. Without mentioning Beshear specifically, Fletcher told the Herald-Leader that he decided to take a hard-line stance because "some folks" are publicly promoting gambling in a way that has made this governor's race "a referendum on casinos."

He said no new polling numbers prompted him to change his approach. For four years, Fletcher had said he was personally opposed to casinos but would leave the issue up to the General Assembly and voters.

Fletcher's new line is: "That's not going to happen on my watch."

The beauty of this approach is that it not only appeals to Fletcher’s core supporters but it also cuts into Beshear’s liberal base while distracting the voters from the fact that Ernie Fletcher is one lousy governor.

The problem for some liberal voters is that they really dislike Ernie Fletcher and the way he governs but they also really dislike the idea of gambling. My friend Richard Dawahare states the problem on his blog, The PeaceCow Field Journal.

“I face a personal political dilemma. I belong to the Democratic Party (as opposed to being a Democrat. I am a human that happens to believe in traditional Democratic principles, but I am NOT "a Democrat") and have nearly always voted for those candidates.

But in this year’s gubernatorial race the Democratic candidate, Steve Beshear, is not merely pro casino gambling, but is making that the central plank of his platform. Now casino/electronic gambling is the pre-eminent issue that will adversely affect not only the future of Kentucky, but also that of the whole nation. Therefore, although Mr. Beshear is an otherwise solid candidate, his promotion of casino gambling disqualifies him and I would not support him or any candidate who supported this losing enterprise.

The Republican candidate, Governor Ernie Fletcher, has now changed his stance on casinos from one of allowing a referendum to being adamantly opposed to them. He has thus made casino gambling the key issue in the race and has positioned himself as the savior to prevent its ugly tentacles from strangling Kentucky’s future.”

This personal dilemma, that many voters share, is what helps Fletcher. If he can create enough cognitive dissonance about gambling, he may cause enough liberal democrats not to vote.