Let’s talk money.
With ten slates in the mix for the Governor’s office and the need to get a message to the voters the fund raising effort becomes of critical importance to some candidates.
We have a bell shape curve, with Billy Harper and Bruce Lunsford at one end and Gatewood Galbraith and Otis Hensley at the other.
Money is a non-factor for these four. Harper and Lunsford have deep personal pockets and are able to run the best campaigns money can buy. Gatewood and Otis are on the other end, neither one will have enough money to mount any kind of paid media. However, between them they will suck up 10% to 15% of the votes cast.
Somewhere on the high-end of the curve we have Steve Henry, Anne Northup and Ernie Fletcher. Now it’s true that Republicans usually out raise and out spend Democrats, with the exception of candidates like Lunsford.
With the Republicans I would give the edge to Fletcher in raising money. Never underestimate the power of an incumbent on handing out either pain or pleasure to those that have the deep pockets.
In spite of the Ernie is a little wimp commercial, Fletcher is still the biggest bully on the play ground. So my guess is that Annie is having more problems than she has ever had in raising money.
As for Henry, who knows where the money is or how much he has raised with his various campaign accounts. The real question is whether Mitch McConnell will allow the Justice Department to indict Henry before the primary. If the Republicans think there is a snowballs chance in hell of Henry being nominated, the indictment, if it happens, will come after the primary.
So now we are down to Jonathan Miller, Steve Beshear and Jody Richards. We know how much money Miller has raised he has been the only candidate open enough to self report.
Word on the street is that Jody has raised less than $150,000.00 and is banking on help from Phyllis George to help pick up the pace. Maybe his running mates former step-mother can bring in the bucks, but it looks like a long shot to me.
Word is it that Beshear is some where near $500,000.00 in total funds, still pretty slim for a state wide race.
On the Democratic side, assuming Lunsford can’t buy the Democratic primary and Steve Henry’s Teflon coating finally cracks, the race looks like it will come down a run-off between Miller and Beshear.
On the Republican side they are so conditioned to march in lock step I have to put my money on Ernie Fletcher getting his butt kicked all over the play ground in November.