This falls into the category of “Are you not paying attention?”
From the lips of the Honorable Senator Ray Jones via The Pikeville News Express and PageOne:
One of those filings that Jones spoke about is a controversial immigration bill that seeks to establish a policy similar to that of Arizona, which has been highly criticized by some who claim the policy promotes racial profiling.
But Jones said he voted for the bill because of the potential benefits to Kentuckians.
Without monitoring immigration, Jones said, the state opens itself up to potential violence associated with the Mexican drug trade.
“Not only do we not know how many (immigrants) are here illegally, we don’t know who is here legally,” Jones said.
Jones said illegal immigrants are a burden on the state economy, but cautioned that strict enforcement of the law could cause overcrowding of jails and prisons, creating yet another potential budget crisis. However, taking no action may be worse, Jones said.
“It’s costing millions and millions of dollars that we don’t have,” he said.
Last October the Kentucky state police found 111 meth labs in Kentucky. So the Senator is worried about the potential Mexican drug violence in Pike County. I would rather he be a little more worried about the existing meth problem and how our tax dollars are spent.
This is another example of a politician spouting off without having a clue what he is talking about. Let’s have some real numbers about cost and benefit before you vote for something Senator.
Or is this a tactic to scare the ignorant hillbillies in the hollers about the impending flood of illegal Mexicans so you can claim you are protecting them.
Please Senator, a little more research and class are in order before you pontificate in public and certainly before you vote.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
November Election Results
The filing deadline is passed and here is an almost complete list of the candidates at the bottom of the post (I’ll explain the almost part later). I will now use my, way too many, years of watching Kentucky elections and predict the winners in November.
First an editorial statement:
The offices of Secretary of State, Treasurer and Commissioner of Agriculture are anachronistic hold overs and should be folded into the Executive Branch. The main purpose of these offices is to give the holder the opportunity to get paid for planning to run for another office.
So let’s start at the bottom with the Commissioner of Agriculture, notice the current holder is running for another office. There are five democrats and two republicans running for this office.
The winner in primary will be James Comer. Comer has already raised over $103,000.00 his primary opponent Bob Rothenburger (doesn’t he play quarterback for the Steelers?) has about $23,000.00. In an election where name recognition is everything Comer is an easy win.
On the democratic side B. D. Wilson, the hand-picked candidate of Governor Steve Beshear, has about $50,000.00 to run with and will win the primary. This primary race may have some entertainment value with candidate David Lynn Williams in the race, but Wilson will win the primary.
The winner in November: James Comer
In the Treasurer’s race we have Todd Hollenbach and Steve Hamrick running on the Democratic side. Toddie, as his dad former Jefferson County Judge Todd Hollenbach calls him, will win this one on name recognition.
Toddie’s republican opponent in the general election will be KC Crosbie; she is running unopposed in the primary. Crosbie, who was just re-elected this past November to a seat on the Lexington City Council, is already practicing the art of holding one office to run for another.
Honestly, if you need a good argument for abolishing this office look at the field of Candidates.
The winner in November will be KC Crosbie.
Now the democratic primary for the Secretary of State will be fun to watch. We have Gov. Steve Beshear’s candidate Elaine Walker (the current appointed office holder), on one side and Jerry Lundergan’s daughter Alison Lundergan Grimes on the other side. This is a democratic factional family feud. The smart money has to be on Grimes. Jerry Lundergan will pull out the stops to get his little girl elected.
On the republican side I have to go with Hilda Legg, she just sounds smarter than Bill Johnson. Although it really doesn’t matter who the republicans pick, Alison Lundergan Grimes will destroy them in November.
Ok, now let’s talk about the two down ticket races that actually matter Auditor and Attorney General.
The republican candidates for Auditor obviously can’t do the political math or aren’t smart enough to look at who is support the democrat and how much money he has accumulated. The winner in the republican primary will be Addia Wuncher. I find what this woman has supported in the General Assembly demonstrates that she has no concept of what is needed by the Commonwealth, but she will be the republican candidate in the fall.
The only good thing about Addia getting through the primary is that Adam Edelen will crush her in the general election. Edelen is running unopposed in the primary and has raised over $300,000.00 from democrats and republicans. Other potential democratic candidates can do the political math. Edelen will be the next Auditor.
Let’s move straight to November since both of the Attorney General candidates are running unopposed. The biggest question in this race is whether Jack Conway wants to keep the office. If Conway actually runs for the office he will win, but if he continues with the entitled frat boy attitude Todd P’Pool will take the office. I think Jack will man up and win the office.
Now for the main event:
In the republican primary Williams/Farmer will win. David Williams has too much money and political favors owed to him to not win. The fun part of this race is that Bobbie Holsclaw will hold his feet to the fire from now to May. With Holsclaw’s entrance to the race the Moffett/Harmon ticket just became irrelevant. Moffett, who was only polling about 9% before Holsclaw entered the race, will fade badly. TEA party, listen up, Rand Paul won because he was Ron Paul’s son and dad had political organization in place and a ton of money to throw into the race, not because his political agenda.
The Beshear/Abramson ticket is running unopposed. Really, what fool in the Democratic Party would take on a sitting Governor with $3 million buck in the bank. Beshear is going to win this because he has done nothing to really anger anyone, which is easy to do when you don’t do anything at all. Williams on the other side seems to delight in crushing people, that trait and Bobbie Holsclaw will be the reason he doesn’t win.
Now for the almost complete part of the list and really fun part of picking winners, the spoiler:
Gatewood Galbraith and Dea Riley are running as independents and will be on the General Election Ballot.
Remember James George Janos, better known as Jesse “The Body” Ventura, the 38th Governor of Minnesota from 1999 to 2003. He won the election in November 1998, narrowly (and unexpectedly) defeating the major-party candidates, St. Paul mayor Norm Coleman (Republican) and Minnesota Attorney General Hubert H. "Skip" Humphrey III (Democratic-Farmer-Labor).
Well this year could be the perfect storm that puts Gatewood Galbraith in the Governor’s Mansion.
Before you start laughing, think about these things.
First, in a three way race you don’t need a majority of the votes to win.
Second, Gatewood historically has taken about 10 to 12 percent of the vote so he needs to make up a little more than 20 percent.
Third, Gatewood has never been able to raise the kind of money he needs to run a state wide campaign, partnering with Dea Riley should fix that problem. Riley has run winning campaigns and knows how to raise money.
Fourth, by the time we get to this race the TEA party members have no place else to go.
Fifth, the campaigns that will be run by Williams and Beshear will be ugly nasty personal campaigns. With the events in Arizona, I don’t know how this will play in this election.
Sixth, Gatewood really is the smartest guy in the campaign. I can't wait to see Gatewood, Williams and Beshear on the same statge.
Seventh, this is only for those of you doing your homework, the Galbraith/Riley campaign is the only one actually trying to address the issues.
So with an epic perfect political storm Gatewood Galbraith becomes governor of Kentucky.
Governor/Lt. Governor
Republicans: David Williams/Richie Farmer, Phil Moffett/Mike Harmon, Barbara (Bobbie) Holsclaw/Bill Vermillion
Democrats: Steve Beshear/Jerry Abramsom
Attorney General
Republicans: Todd P’Pool
Democrats: Jack Conway
Auditor:
Democrats: Adam Edelen
Republicans: Addia Wuncher, John Kemper
Secretary of State
Democrats: Alison Lundergan Grimes, Elaine Walker
Republicans: Bill Johnson, Hilda Legg
Treasurer:
Democrats: Todd Hollenbach, Steve Hamrick
Republicans: K.C. Crosby
Commissioner of Agriculture:
Democrats: Robert "Bob" Farmer, Stewart Gritton, John Faris Lackey, David Williams, B.D. Wilson
Republicans: James R. Comer, Rob Rothenburger
First an editorial statement:
The offices of Secretary of State, Treasurer and Commissioner of Agriculture are anachronistic hold overs and should be folded into the Executive Branch. The main purpose of these offices is to give the holder the opportunity to get paid for planning to run for another office.
So let’s start at the bottom with the Commissioner of Agriculture, notice the current holder is running for another office. There are five democrats and two republicans running for this office.
The winner in primary will be James Comer. Comer has already raised over $103,000.00 his primary opponent Bob Rothenburger (doesn’t he play quarterback for the Steelers?) has about $23,000.00. In an election where name recognition is everything Comer is an easy win.
On the democratic side B. D. Wilson, the hand-picked candidate of Governor Steve Beshear, has about $50,000.00 to run with and will win the primary. This primary race may have some entertainment value with candidate David Lynn Williams in the race, but Wilson will win the primary.
The winner in November: James Comer
In the Treasurer’s race we have Todd Hollenbach and Steve Hamrick running on the Democratic side. Toddie, as his dad former Jefferson County Judge Todd Hollenbach calls him, will win this one on name recognition.
Toddie’s republican opponent in the general election will be KC Crosbie; she is running unopposed in the primary. Crosbie, who was just re-elected this past November to a seat on the Lexington City Council, is already practicing the art of holding one office to run for another.
Honestly, if you need a good argument for abolishing this office look at the field of Candidates.
The winner in November will be KC Crosbie.
Now the democratic primary for the Secretary of State will be fun to watch. We have Gov. Steve Beshear’s candidate Elaine Walker (the current appointed office holder), on one side and Jerry Lundergan’s daughter Alison Lundergan Grimes on the other side. This is a democratic factional family feud. The smart money has to be on Grimes. Jerry Lundergan will pull out the stops to get his little girl elected.
On the republican side I have to go with Hilda Legg, she just sounds smarter than Bill Johnson. Although it really doesn’t matter who the republicans pick, Alison Lundergan Grimes will destroy them in November.
Ok, now let’s talk about the two down ticket races that actually matter Auditor and Attorney General.
The republican candidates for Auditor obviously can’t do the political math or aren’t smart enough to look at who is support the democrat and how much money he has accumulated. The winner in the republican primary will be Addia Wuncher. I find what this woman has supported in the General Assembly demonstrates that she has no concept of what is needed by the Commonwealth, but she will be the republican candidate in the fall.
The only good thing about Addia getting through the primary is that Adam Edelen will crush her in the general election. Edelen is running unopposed in the primary and has raised over $300,000.00 from democrats and republicans. Other potential democratic candidates can do the political math. Edelen will be the next Auditor.
Let’s move straight to November since both of the Attorney General candidates are running unopposed. The biggest question in this race is whether Jack Conway wants to keep the office. If Conway actually runs for the office he will win, but if he continues with the entitled frat boy attitude Todd P’Pool will take the office. I think Jack will man up and win the office.
Now for the main event:
In the republican primary Williams/Farmer will win. David Williams has too much money and political favors owed to him to not win. The fun part of this race is that Bobbie Holsclaw will hold his feet to the fire from now to May. With Holsclaw’s entrance to the race the Moffett/Harmon ticket just became irrelevant. Moffett, who was only polling about 9% before Holsclaw entered the race, will fade badly. TEA party, listen up, Rand Paul won because he was Ron Paul’s son and dad had political organization in place and a ton of money to throw into the race, not because his political agenda.
The Beshear/Abramson ticket is running unopposed. Really, what fool in the Democratic Party would take on a sitting Governor with $3 million buck in the bank. Beshear is going to win this because he has done nothing to really anger anyone, which is easy to do when you don’t do anything at all. Williams on the other side seems to delight in crushing people, that trait and Bobbie Holsclaw will be the reason he doesn’t win.
Now for the almost complete part of the list and really fun part of picking winners, the spoiler:
Gatewood Galbraith and Dea Riley are running as independents and will be on the General Election Ballot.
Remember James George Janos, better known as Jesse “The Body” Ventura, the 38th Governor of Minnesota from 1999 to 2003. He won the election in November 1998, narrowly (and unexpectedly) defeating the major-party candidates, St. Paul mayor Norm Coleman (Republican) and Minnesota Attorney General Hubert H. "Skip" Humphrey III (Democratic-Farmer-Labor).
Well this year could be the perfect storm that puts Gatewood Galbraith in the Governor’s Mansion.
Before you start laughing, think about these things.
First, in a three way race you don’t need a majority of the votes to win.
Second, Gatewood historically has taken about 10 to 12 percent of the vote so he needs to make up a little more than 20 percent.
Third, Gatewood has never been able to raise the kind of money he needs to run a state wide campaign, partnering with Dea Riley should fix that problem. Riley has run winning campaigns and knows how to raise money.
Fourth, by the time we get to this race the TEA party members have no place else to go.
Fifth, the campaigns that will be run by Williams and Beshear will be ugly nasty personal campaigns. With the events in Arizona, I don’t know how this will play in this election.
Sixth, Gatewood really is the smartest guy in the campaign. I can't wait to see Gatewood, Williams and Beshear on the same statge.
Seventh, this is only for those of you doing your homework, the Galbraith/Riley campaign is the only one actually trying to address the issues.
So with an epic perfect political storm Gatewood Galbraith becomes governor of Kentucky.
Governor/Lt. Governor
Republicans: David Williams/Richie Farmer, Phil Moffett/Mike Harmon, Barbara (Bobbie) Holsclaw/Bill Vermillion
Democrats: Steve Beshear/Jerry Abramsom
Attorney General
Republicans: Todd P’Pool
Democrats: Jack Conway
Auditor:
Democrats: Adam Edelen
Republicans: Addia Wuncher, John Kemper
Secretary of State
Democrats: Alison Lundergan Grimes, Elaine Walker
Republicans: Bill Johnson, Hilda Legg
Treasurer:
Democrats: Todd Hollenbach, Steve Hamrick
Republicans: K.C. Crosby
Commissioner of Agriculture:
Democrats: Robert "Bob" Farmer, Stewart Gritton, John Faris Lackey, David Williams, B.D. Wilson
Republicans: James R. Comer, Rob Rothenburger
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