7 Out Of 5 People Can't Do Math

You’ve got to love political spin. I got this email from Lexington Mayoral Candidate Jim Newberry, when you do a blog like this you end up on every politicians email list. Well, at least you get email from every smart politician.

Here’s how the email started:

“In a poll released September 12 by WKYT, Jim Newberry finishes first in a three-way race with current Mayor Teresa Isaac and Councilman Bill Farmer.”

Well Jim, I guess that’s sort of the truth, but you really shouldn’t read these sort of books or listen to too much Jimmy Buffett.

The email continues with the percentages:

“Jim Newberry 25%
Teresa Isaac 22%
Bill Farmer 21%
Other/Undecided 25%”

Now unless I read the numbers wrong there are as many people undecided as there are in favor of Newberry. What I find really interesting about this email is the absence of the margin of error. The margin of error, according to Jermont Terry of WKYT, was +/- 5 percent.

So applying the margin of error to the numbers above, the real numbers look like this:

Jim Newberry 20% - 30%
Teresa Isaac 17% - 27%
Bill Farmer 16% - 26%
Other/Undecided 20% - 30%

So, Jim Newberry could be tied with the undecided vote or he could be first or he could be dead last or any place in between. This race is a dead heat right now.

Now I realize that Jim is just trying to put a positive spin on the numbers to create the perception that he is already winning the race. But, he actually just lost a couple of points with me.

You see, I like candidates that can actually do math, especially when they are handling millions in tax dollars. If Jim really thinks he’s winning this race, at this point in time, then I shudder to think how he will handle his first budget.